Some error occured while loading the Quick View. Please close the Quick View and try reloading the page.
With the increasing role of economic uncertainty, improving the efficiency of forecasts is ever so important. This book makes suggestions on how to evaluate the key economic indicators under uncertainty. It presents the interval method to study economic indicators, which will allow us to understand the possibilities of forecasting and the irregular nature of the economy. It is shown that with the accumulation of negative phenomena in a seemingly stable situation the effect of a compressed spring may snap into action. The book outlines the uncertainty relations in the economy, the minimal uncertainty interval, the effect of an expanding uncertainty band, sensitivity thresholds, as well as the principles of systematization and forecasting of economic indicators. The book presents ways to facilitate economic development, assess the quality of a forecast, and increase the efficiency of forecasts and decision-making in conditions of uncertainty.
“Professor Tavadyan has written an interesting book about the philosophy of economic forecasting investigating its connection to uncertainty and warning about the unpredictability of the economic landscape and the need to consider the ‘uncertainty band’ in all decisions related to economic predictions.” – Professor Spyros Makridakis, University of Nicosia UNIC, director of the Institute for the Future IFF, Cyprus.
Preface; Introduction – The Philosophy Of Economic Forecasting; Chapter 1 – Interval Links in Economy and the Capabilities of Quantitative Thinking; Chapter 2 – The Possibilities for Forecasting Economic Indicators; Chapter 3 – The Principle of the Minimal Uncertainty Interval; Chapter 4 – The Intervals of Key Economic Indicators; Chapter 5 – Key Principles of Economic Regulation; Conclusion; Appendix – The Uncertainty Relations of Economic Indicators; Acknowledgments.