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Prediction in Criminology is the first book to bring together a wide variety of articles on prediction research in criminology. It stresses not only substantive findings but also the methodology of prediction research, and demonstrates how similar issues arise in many applications: problems of research design, the choice of predictor and criterion variables, methods of selecting and combining variables into a prediction instrument, measures of predictive efficiency, and external validity or generalizability. The collection includes research from the United States, Canada, and Great Britain and will be of interest to an international audience of policy makers, practitioners, academics, and researchers.
"The selections are excellent, giving a good overview and a diversity of methods used and compared. The volume thus gives a good portrayal of the 'present state of the art.' It includes thoughtful and useful discussions of pertinent ethical issues as well as scientific ones, sound scholarship, generally careful writing, and the conclusions are well supported by the evidence presented." — Don M. Gottfredson
David P. Farrington obtained a Ph.D. in experimental psychology from Cambridge University. On the staff of the Cambridge University Institute of Criminology since 1969, he is currently a Lecturer in Criminology at Cambridge University. Farrington published seven books and more than 60 papers on criminological and psychological topics. Chairman of the Division of Criminological and Legal Psychology of the British Psychological Society, he is also a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences Panel on Criminal Career Research. In 1984 he received the Sellin-Glueck Award of the American Society of Criminology. Roger Tarling graduated in economics and social statistics at London University and obtained the Diploma in Statistics awarded by the Institute of Statisticians. He has been on the staff of the Home Office Research and Planning Unit since 1972 and is currently a Principal Research Officer. Currently a member of the Governing Council of the Institute of Statisticians, he has published six books and research monographs and more than 30 articles on criminological topics.
Preface
List of Contributors
I. Introductory Section
One. Criminological Prediction: An Introduction
David P. Farrington and Roger Tarling
Two. The Politics of Prediction
Leslie T. Wilkins
II. Parole Prediction
Three. Screening for Risk among Parolees: Policy, Practice, and Method
Stephen D. Gottfredson and Don M. Gottfredson
Four. Predicting Failure on Parole
William L. Wilbanks
III. Custodial Prediction
Five. Predicting Recidivism Using Institutional Measures
Gillian Hill
Six. Predicting Absconding from Young Offender Institutions
David Thornton and Sheila Speirs
Seven. Prediction and Treatment of Self-Injury by Female Young Offenders
J. Eric Cullen
IV. Other Criminological Applications
Eight. Predicting Self-Reported and Official Delinquency
David P. Farrington
Nine. Predicting Outcomes of Mentally Disordered and Dangerous Offenders
Tony Black and Penny Spinks
Ten. Modelling a Criminal Justice System
R. Gordon Cassidy
V. Statistical Methodology
Eleven. Statistical Methods in Criminological Prediction
Roger Tarling and John A. Perry
Twelve. Prediction Equations, Statistical Analysis, and Shrinkage
John B. Copas
VI. Conclusions
Thirteen. Criminological Prediction: The Way Forward
David P. Farrington and Roger Tarling
Author Index
Subject Index