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Modeling climate change impact on agro-ecosystem services
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24 July 2023

Agricultural landscapes are critical to producing food, and other ecosystem services - the vital benefits that flow from ecosystems to people. This chapter reviews how multiple ecosystem services may be impacted by climate change, broadly concluding that most impacts tend to be negative both on supporting services for agricultural production and co-benefits of agroecosystems. Systemic approaches to modeling food provision as an ecosystem service while integrating climate and societal changes are investigated; global statistical models are promising to account for climate via yields responses in “climate-analogs” areas; in particular a novel approach aggregating yields to focus on nutrition, assuming crop mix adaptation. Finally, to reach indicators relevant to human well-being, yields projections must be translated to benefit-relevant metrics, e.g., caloric sufficiency. The ecosystem service perspective invites to adopt a holistic view, both of the drivers, accounting for cohesive scenarios of changes, and of the response variable, integrating the demand-side.
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Agriculture / Sustainable Agriculture, Sustainable agriculture, TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Agriculture / Agronomy / Crop Science, SCIENCE / Global Warming & Climate Change, Agronomy and crop production, Climatology and climate modelling, Climate change, Agricultural science
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Climate change impacts on ecosystem services in agricultural systems
- 3 Climate change impacts on food-provisioning ecosystem services
- 4 From models to decision-relevant metrics: integrating demand
- 5 Conclusion
- 6 Future trends in research
- 7 Where to look for further information
- 8 References