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Developing more integrated approaches in models assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture
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24 July 2023

Climate change impacts on agriculture will interact with those arising from socio-economic changes in complex ways. Understanding the consequences for agriculture requires an integrated (or holistic) modelling framework. Four key challenges in regional integrated modelling of agricultural systems are identified: (1) better characterisation of model structural uncertainty and its propagation through the modelled system; (2) improved representation of the importance of non-climate drivers on both the supply and demand sides of agriculture; (3) enabling adaptive capacity to be modified by evolving future socio-economic conditions; and (4) incorporating objective targets or goals for adaptation. Future integrated modelling studies that recognise both the uncertainty in climate and socio-economic change and the sensitivity of the uptake and effectiveness of agricultural adaptation options to socio-economic change will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the future challenges and opportunities facing agriculture and an improved basis for planning responses.
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Agriculture / Sustainable Agriculture, Sustainable agriculture, TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Agriculture / Agronomy / Crop Science, SCIENCE / Global Warming & Climate Change, Agronomy and crop production, Climatology and climate modelling, Climate change, Agricultural science
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Addressing key challenges in integrated modelling
- 3 Case study
- 4 Conclusion
- 5 Future trends in research
- 6 Acknowledgements
- 7 Where to look for further information
- 8 References